The past three years have seen a relentless surge in the cost of living, leaving many wondering when prices will return to previous levels. To get a straight answer, I asked ChatGPT to forecast when prices would finally go back down. The response was blunt: a full return to 2021 prices isn’t likely. Instead, the focus should shift to slowing price increases rather than outright declines.
The Nuance of “Going Back Down”
ChatGPT clarified that “going back down” doesn’t mean a return to pre-inflation levels. It means the rate of price increases will decelerate, potentially flattening out, with some goods and services seeing modest drops. This distinction is critical: if an item cost $3 in 2021 and $4.50 today, slower inflation might bring it to $4.65 next year, not back to $3.
This matters because the expectation of prices falling entirely is unrealistic. The underlying economic forces that drove inflation – supply chain disruptions, increased demand, and geopolitical factors – haven’t fully resolved.
Current Inflation Trends
As of late 2025, the U.S. annual inflation rate stands around 3.0%, a slight increase from August’s 2.9%. Core inflation, excluding volatile food and energy, is moderating but remains above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target. Forecasts suggest inflation could fall to approximately 2.6% by 2026 – progress, but still elevated.
The key takeaway: inflation is cooling, but not disappearing. This incremental shift has significant implications for purchasing power and consumer behavior.
Timeline for Meaningful Relief
ChatGPT outlines a phased timeline:
- Short-Term (Next 6-12 Months): Price increases will continue, but at a slower pace. Expect no immediate, widespread drops.
- Medium-Term (2026-2027): More substantial relief will arrive as inflation nears the 2% target. Some sectors, like rent and durable goods, may see actual declines.
- Lagging Effects: Housing costs will lag behind due to the delayed impact of slower market activity. External factors (tariffs, energy, supply chains) still pose risks.
Where Relief Will Come First
Sector-specific forecasts suggest the earliest relief will be felt in:
- Groceries: The USDA projects food-at-home prices rising about 2.3% in 2026, with potential declines in fresh produce and wheat.
- Housing: Median home price growth will slow, and rent increases will moderate.
- Durable Goods: CPI projections show a 2.4% increase by late 2026, but wholesale price drops remain unlikely. Deals may appear, but broad declines are improbable.
These forecasts emphasize that relief will be uneven. Some categories will stabilize faster than others, requiring consumers to adjust their spending habits accordingly.
The Bottom Line
ChatGPT’s conclusion is sobering: prices aren’t going back to where they were. Instead, they’re simply slowing their ascent. For those hoping for 2021 prices, the message is clear: adjust expectations and focus on areas where relief is emerging.
The reality is that slower inflation helps purchasing power even without price declines. If wages grow faster than inflation, financial situations will improve over time. This isn’t the same as prices falling, but it’s a step in the right direction.
